Telecom: What does the future hold? 
The Italian incumbent is currently the center of a complex economic situation that see the interplay of different dynamics, nuances are not always well defined, but full of considerable significance for the development of the company.
protagonists of the current situation are in fact the decision taken by the entity and the Italian government in the short term will be taken by the Authority for Guarantees in Communications. At this dual front and then you add the strategic moves taken by the company in terms of opening the market to new players (virtual operators) and also the evolution of the company, which after months of negotiations and interference from the political world has seen the appearance of Telco spa instead of Olympia, a new company which will own 23.6% of Telecom Italy.
To understand how these individual aspects, however, are for the actual impact and potentially the results of the Telecom Italian is necessary to proceed with order.
First, regulatory intervention in a prominent role it has played the Bersani decree that, since the early days of March, it imposed the abolition of top-up charges and the maximum time limits for the use of traffic purchased by the customer.
This measure will have a negative impact on sales of Telecom, which, net of the recovery plan which envisages an increase in volumes and optimization of rates, estimated a loss of between 350 and 400 million euro.
should however be noted that after the elimination of top-up charges, you may also abolished the so-called charge, and then could be the turn of the international roaming charges. All this would indicate that the losses assumed a more relevant quantity. What we see
However, a node on the horizon far more thorny to be solved for Telecom. Agcom has in fact launched a public consultation in order to get to achieve separation of the management, development and provision of services related to infrastructure access.
A push in the direction of the Communications Authority is primarily the fact that Telecom holds a position of dominance in all telephone markets and the increase in cases of litigation in relation to other operators. It 'is well known that Telecom has taken a hard line in recent years against competition in the light of the fact that the trade-off between negative sanctions and loss of position market was biased towards the second aspect.
This ongoing transition and then throws a veil of uncertainty about the near future of the company. Many in fact are the unknowns to be concerned and the tenuous balance of interests in the field. The agreement, if it reached, will have to find a perfect blend to solve two problems. On the one hand, the definition of the most optimal form of splitting, the other the degree of freedom on future tariffs for access to the network. The latter should in fact be essential to ensure a return for investment in such future NGN yet to be accepted by all operators.
Taking all these factors revealed then certainly not be as easy to find the key to the problem Telecom that will allow it to absorb the significant downside that it will have on the separation of the network.
Another concern for the future of telephony and telecom is instead represented by the entry of virtual mobile operators on the Italian market.
Certainly the entry of these operators, which do not benefit from proprietary networks, but the rent from other operators, will lead to a change in the competitive landscape. Although it is true that the Italian market is consolidated and then the prospective decline in prices will not be as incisive as that received on other European markets, it is equally true expect an impact on prices of at least a few percentage points.
Another consideration is the impact, however, to suggest that this input will be for Telecom. The virtual, which support the various actors will come to offer their services, certainly increase in coming months. A highlight of this enough to consider that a few days after the agreement between COOP and Telecom, Vodafone and Carrefour Italy have announced the birth of UNOMobile. This will result in the fact that 7-8% of the sim, which is expected to be conquered by the virtual, will, in particular at the expense of Tim, which has the largest number of customers.
The last point is then considered to shed light the near future of telecom is the birth of Telco SpA.
pivotal role from this point of view is played by the industrial partner of Italian investors, namely by the English company Telefonica.
Indeed, it seems that the participation of Iberia may charge a considerable strategic value since there are clear synergies between the two companies, resulting from the coexistence in certain geographic areas. There is talk of Latin America, particularly Brazil, where Telefonica and Telecom operates fixed in Italy is the second largest mobile operator, and Germany, where Telecom is the second player in broadband, while Telefonica is active in the cabinet.
Also as regards the latter needs to be addressed and then wait to see if the potential is realized and whether the partnership will have a capacity in the industry and a significant influence on market outcomes of Telecom.
